Forecasting and preparation can reduce disaster damage

Researcher Mustafa Kamal Palash has worked on climate change and weather for a long time. He is currently pursuing his PhD in Meteorology and Climate at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada. Before that he studied at University of Waterloo, Canada and Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Bangladesh.
contemporary: How do you see this year's flood pattern, movement and future?
Mustafa Kamal Palash: In 2022, there is a risk of a slightly bigger flood than usual in Bangladesh. There is a danger that more districts will be inundated with flood water. La Niña conditions are prevailing in the eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña years in the Indian subcontinent experience higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall and larger-than-normal floods. The monsoon rainfall forecast of Columbia University in America has indicated the possibility of 20 percent more rainfall than normal in the districts of Rangpur, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Dhaka and Chittagong divisions of Bangladesh in June, July and August 2022. If this forecast is correct, apart from the ongoing floods in the Surma and Meghna basins, there is a risk of larger than normal floods in the Teesta and Yamuna river basins.
contemporary: Is this flood sudden?
Mustafa Kamal: None of the floods that have occurred and are occurring in Sylhet this year were sudden. The US weather forecast model and the European Union weather forecast have already come up with the issue. The fear of major floods came in the report published on June 4. Apart from this, I clearly mentioned on several televisions on 5th and 12th June that there will be very heavy rains in Sylhet division in the second week of June. I mentioned the possibility of 600 to 1000 millimeters of rain. As a result, there is no opportunity to say this, this time the flood came suddenly. Similarly, it would be completely unfair to say that there was no opportunity to prepare beforehand. Early publicity could have minimized the damage. Government departments have failed to play a responsible role in this regard.
contemporary: How should we prepare for floods?
Mustafa Kamal: Any natural disaster is often not possible to control by humans. But it is possible to reduce the loss of life and property if the forecast reaches the people 10 to 15 days in advance. Meteorological department and flood forecasting center failed to provide timely forecast. As a result, many people in the flood affected towns of Sylhet and Sunamganj managed to save their lives but failed to take their houses or cattle to safe shelter. In order to avoid such damages in the future, accurate weather forecasts should be ensured in advance.
contemporary: Where are the limitations of Meteorological Department?
Mustafa Kamal: I don't know if Meteorological Department follows and analyzes daily weather forecast data from US and EU models. Only 15 to 20 countries around the world have developed their own global weather forecasting models. Other countries use those models according to their economic capabilities. The mathematical weather model used by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department for weather forecasting is also made by America. But the model is a regional model. Mathematical models for weather forecasting require very high-powered computers. As can be seen from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department's website, it currently uses a mathematical weather forecasting model called WRF. 7 to 10 days weather forecast is very accurate from this model. But they fail to reach people. I think all kinds of media should take help for this.
contemporary: Flood danger has increased in recent times in Bangladesh. This year's flood is terrible.
Mustafa Kamal: Land erosion in the upstream countries of Bangladesh has increased significantly in recent years. Bangladesh's rivers are becoming navigable due to sand and silt caused by land erosion upstream. Due to which the silt caused by monsoon water or heavy rain accumulates and the navigability of the rivers decreases and the vast areas along the river banks are flooded. Almost all of Bangladesh's rivers originate in India, Nepal and Bhutan. In recent years, the Government of India has constructed a large number of dams in these rivers, obstructing the normal flow of water. Since most of these dams are built for hydropower generation, these dams have to retain water all the time to generate electricity. When it rains for several days during the monsoon season, the gates of the dams located upstream in Bangladesh are forced to open suddenly. Due to which sudden flood situation is created in the country of Bangladesh. This year the severity of floods has increased in Sylhet division. At the same time, man-made factors such as destruction of natural forests in the hills of Meghalaya have reduced the navigability of the rivers in the Sylhet division due to increased soil erosion. Several days of meteorological processes occur at the same time as the path of the jet stream becomes more tortuous and stays longer over the Indian subcontinent. Coincidentally, this year has seen more rainfall than other years through interaction with the monsoonal winds that move inland over the Indian subcontinent at a very slow pace. Climate change is also causing more rainfall in a shorter period of time. These factors have simultaneously increased the severity of floods this year.
contemporary: Are floods increasing only due to natural causes, or do we have a direct role?
Mustafa Kamal: Several man-made factors can be traced to the recent increase in the severity of floods. One of which is the increase in soil erosion due to the destruction of natural forests in the hills. Blocking the normal flow of river water by damming the river for power generation and suddenly releasing all the water from the dam during heavy rains is causing widespread flooding in the downstream townships of the dam. For example, India's Farakka dam upstream of Padma river and India's Ghazaldoba dam upstream of Teesta river suddenly open all the dam gates every year during the monsoon season, causing flooding in the coastal districts of Padma and Teesta rivers.
contemporary: How do you think the preparation for future floods?
Mustafa Kamal: Natural calamities related to weather such as heavy rains, high speed winds caused by strong monsoons, severe lightning etc. cannot be controlled by humans. But with proper and timely application of science and technology (eg proper use of weather forecasting models, widespread dissemination of flood forecasting) it is possible to protect life and property from possible damage caused by natural disasters. People should be prepared to deal with possible natural disasters by conveying the danger of heavy rains to the countrymen in advance. Long before the onset of heavy rains, the accumulated water in the dam should be released and prepared for possible heavy rains. By ensuring uninterrupted flow of accurate water flow data of rivers located between India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan, downstream countries can prepare for potential flood situations well in advance.