BMI Research, an international research institute, is predicting the victory of Awami League in the upcoming national elections. They think that the ruling party is ahead of the main rival BNP in public support.
According to a research report released by the institute on Friday, BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia's strength has declined to a large extent after she was sentenced in a corruption case and went to jail. And their leadership has also weakened. With this 'weak leadership', they will not be able to create a strong competition in front of Awami League.
Awami League has been in power for 10 consecutive years since its landslide victory in the national elections of December 29, 2008. However, the ruling party won easily in the January 5, 2014 election due to the exclusion of the main rival BNP-Jamaat alliance.
BNP, however, claims that the government is no longer popular. They depend on the administration to survive.
However, there has been visible economic development in the country during the two terms of Awami League and its achievements are much more than any previous 10 years.
During this period the size of the country's budget has increased seven times, per capita income has increased more than three times, gross domestic product has increased more than four times, the economic growth rate has increased from five to eight percent, electricity consumption has increased from 28 percent to 93 percent, the average life expectancy has increased, the poverty rate has increased. It fell from 31 percent to 22 percent. The country has also achieved the primary qualification of inclusion in the list of developing countries by leaving the list of least developed countries. It has become a lower middle income country at this time.
The government has embarked on a number of mega-projects which, upon completion, are expected to accelerate economic development. And if it comes to power in the future, several other big projects have been planned.
The government is claiming that due to these developmental activities, the popularity and acceptance of the government has also increased among the people.
According to BMI Research, Awami League will get the results of the benefits provided for the socio-economic development of rural agricultural people in the election year budget.
In the budget of the current financial year 2018-19, the Awami League-led government has increased the amount allocated to the subsidy, agriculture and rural development sectors by 27.9, 24.8 and 8.9 percent respectively compared to the previous year. The research firm believes it will play a role in garnering voter support.
The research organization says that the big victory of Awami League candidates in the Khulna and Gazipur City Corporation elections last May and June is a sign of declining support for BNP.
Bangladesh scores 58.1 out of 100 on the organization's short-term political index.
The leadership of BNP has weakened
BMI Research does not think that BNP's political program will have any impact on Awami League after BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia's sentence.
The organization says that there has been a leadership crisis in BNP as acting chairman of BNP Tariq Rahman is abroad and many leaders have been arrested in the country.
On the other hand, the situation of Awami League is opposite. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been leading the party since 1981. The organization sees him as a very strong leader.
Glimpses of violence surrounding the upcoming elections
Just like the 10th parliamentary elections in 2014, BMI Research does not rule out the fear of coercion before the polls.
Four years ago, BNP carried out various violent programs in the country on the demand of non-partisan pre-election government. The government is not paying attention to their demands. However, in addition to making that demand, the leaders are talking about keeping Khaleda Zia in jail and not going to the polls.
In this situation, BMI Research says, 'As a result, there is a possibility of BNP boycotting the elections this time like 2014. We cannot rule out the possibility of their violent movement before and after the elections.
