Written by Ali Riyaz
The ongoing tension and standoff between India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh has brought into focus not only the Sino-Indian dispute but also India's relations with its neighbours. This time after this conflict between India and China, there was an unusual silence all around. However, India used to get unwavering support from other neighboring countries except Pakistan. Worse for India, Nepal's parliament chose this time to approve a revised map including the three disputed territories with India. On the other hand, Bangladesh has received a proposal from China for duty-free entry of Bangladeshi 97% products into the Chinese market, which has been implemented immediately.
Instead of focusing on the validity of Beijing's proposal or the recent conflict in Ladakh, Bangladesh was preoccupied with how the issue of duty-free access was being promoted in the Indian media; One report in particular has been highly vocal, using pejorative terms to describe Bangladesh's recent dealings with China. According to the report, Beijing wants to win Bangladesh's heart with "Khayrati". Public outcry, especially criticism from people on social media, forced the magazine to apologise. Later the Foreign Minister of Bangladesh also spoke about the issue.
The strong public reaction against the Indian daily's report once again proves the uneasiness among Bangladeshis about relations with India; However, both governments claim that their relations have entered a golden age. Many in Bangladesh feel that the relationship is too one-sided and heavily skewed towards India. Last March, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's scheduled visit to Bangladesh was preceded by similar hostile reactions. The tour was later canceled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Even though the attention of the Indian media shifted away from that report, Bangladesh-India relations still remain in the discussion. But a new twist has been added, namely the growing presence of China. What was once a topic of academic discussion has now become a topic of discussion in the media.
For the past few months, the Indian media has been expressing concern that China is wooing Bangladesh through massive investment. They are expressing fear that Bangladesh is now standing against India. Undoubtedly, Bangladesh-China relations have entered a new phase in recent years. For example, Bangladesh's joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), buying submarines, China's $38 billion investment in Bangladesh — to name a few. The issue of granting duty-free access to goods comes at a time when China has proposed setting up a sister-city in Bangladesh. The moves come as China has been trying to woo countries in the region for a decade to expand its influence in South Asia. Bangladesh-China relations, which were once limited to a handful of sectors, especially defense procurement, have been transformed; China has now overtaken India to become Bangladesh's largest trading partner.
This development in Sino-Bangladesh relations angered India so much that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to be reassured in early 2018 that India had nothing to worry about. India has been a staunch supporter of Hasina's government since she came to power in 2009. According to the autobiography of the former President of India, Pranab Mukherjee, India played a role in the transfer of power from the army-backed government to the Awami League in 2008. There is a widespread perception that without India's active support, especially the Indian Foreign Secretary's visit to Bangladesh in 2013, it would have been difficult for the Awami League to organize the disputed 2014 elections. India has given unstinting support to the ruling Awami League for the past decade. Competing with China, India increased its economic ties by extending credit lines to the Bangladesh government twice. But that pales in comparison to what Beijing is offering. Also, these financial packages were by no means enough to hide the highly unequal political relationship between the two countries.
Although Bangladesh on its part has patiently met India's demands, provided free transit of Indian goods, allowed use of Bangladeshi ports, installed radars for coastal surveillance in the country, allowed withdrawal of water from Feni River, but India ignored Bangladesh's legitimate demands. . Besides, some Indian politicians look down on Bangladeshis. This unbalanced relationship, as well as India's policy towards other neighbours, may have created an impression that India believes Bangladesh will always remain within New Delhi's sphere of influence.
Bangladesh's closeness with China has therefore become a source of discomfort for India, especially at a time when Sino-Indian rivalry is on the rise; And Beijing is taking steps to build alliances with smaller countries. The growing criticism of Bangladesh's policies by Indian media and think tanks, expressing concern that Bangladesh is falling into a "debt trap", is in fact an expression of this discontent.
However, there is no reason to think that China's behavior towards Bangladesh is a magnanimity. China's geopolitical battle with India started soon after 2014. Its intensity is increasing in the following years. Both India and China have been trying to keep Bangladesh in their favor for their own interests. While India is short-termist and has ties only to the ruling Awami League, China has made far-reaching moves and seems to be well entrenched.
However, China's economic prowess and massive investments are not outside China's geopolitical agenda. The apparent absence of the United States in the region and its dependence on India for its operations, coupled with India's strained relations with its neighbours, have facilitated China's aggressive moves to increase its influence in the region. But Indian policymakers and their foreign policy think tanks are increasingly looking to China's strategy, ignoring their own policy limitations. There seems to be no urge to learn from past mistakes. But India will certainly not let a tested ally slip out of its control.
Hasina government's balancing act with India and China is welcomed by many. Others were shocked as to why she (Sheikh Hasina) was taking the risk of upsetting her main supporter. Now the prevailing interpretation is that Bangladesh's new closeness with China is due to the need for economic development, especially infrastructural development. The essence of this explanation is that the Bangladesh-India relationship will be primarily political; And relations with China will be limited to the economic sphere.
Whether such division is possible and whether this decision of Hasina's government is only based on economic considerations is also questionable. Behind this step-by-step change, there is also political intrigue. Due to two disputed elections in 2014 and 2018, the current ruling party in Bangladesh lacks moral legitimacy. So with work they have focused on building legitimacy and hope that economic growth can make up for the lack of democracy and accountability.
But that hope has faded as economic and social inequality has grown in the past year. The Covid-19 pandemic, particularly the failure of government health systems and the dramatic increase in the number of poor people, has exposed the weakness of the Awami League's economic strategy. However, as the ruling party wants to continue with the same economic strategy, it has to choose to rely on China's economic support. Awami League's penchant for authoritarianism is increasingly presenting China as a better alternative to its democratic neighbours. A big question is whether the country will politically support an emerging authoritarian group despite the severe collapse of democracy in India in recent years under Modi. The farce is that the Awami League was able to establish an authoritarian regime with the support of India and it is the party that is taking Bangladesh closer to an authoritarian regime in exchange for its one-time patron.
India-China tensions in South Asia are sure to intensify in the coming months and years. Being located between the two rival countries, Bangladesh will be a major arena to witness the future rivalry of these two countries.●
Ali Riyaz is Distinguished Professor of Politics and Government at Illinois State University, USA — This article first appeared in English on July 2 on the Atlantic Council's New Atlanticist blog.
